Whenever a major event occurs that affects much of the rest of the world, we tend to ask the question of whether or not this could have been prevented. More specifically, did anyone see this coming?
When it comes to the events in the Middle East this past year, that answer is a definitive ‘yes.’
As we approach the one year anniversary of the so called Arab Spring, we have just past the one year anniversary of the publication of the only book that predicted these events.
Throughout his career, Dr. Phares has brought issues to light that often times went unnoticed until his predictions proved to be true---as in the case of the Arab Spring.
Even in 2005, Phares had the foresight to understand that only democracy seeking youth would be able to oppose extremists and dictators in the region.
In The Coming Revolution, Phares had posited that the youth’s ability to take advantage of social media was unstoppable when it came to implementing social change. Facebook, Youtube, and Twitter would make even the most powerful and brutal dictatorships vulnerable.
"The revolution is coming…and it is coming fast” argued Phares.
But Phares also warned that once dictators start to fall, a race between the more organized fundamentalists and the less organized secular youth would ensue.
"All depends on who the international community will support."
Dr. Phares also points out that we are only witnessing the beginning of the Middle East Revolution. So now, the question becomes: what’s next?
US troops have completed their withdrawal from Iraq, and the absence of those troops leaves the possibility open for a major shift in the balance of power in the region.
According to Dr. Phares, Iraq will undoubtedly be submitted to Iranian influence while some provinces will come under Islamist Salafi influence.
“The fact that the US Administration didn’t help the secular moderate coalitions of Iraq take off and become the backbone of the country will transform Iraq’s central Government into a vassal to Iran’s regime, or at least to a regime that will accommodate Iranian strategic interests in the region.”
Phares laments America’s lack of concrete support for Iraq’s secular Democrats and fears that Iran’s influence will penetrate central and Southern Iraq, making it all the more likely that Iran will continue to conspire with the Syrian regime and once again empower proxies such as Hezbollah.
“Indeed a shift in geopolitics is taking place in the region where Iranian influence will expand to the Mediterranean as Iraq is defenseless and Syria's regime hasn't been brought down by the opposition or the international community. Hezbollah, from being isolated inside Lebanon, will be connected to its mother ship -ie the Iranian regime- via a strategic land bridge over Iraq and Syria.”
The situation in Syria represents somewhat of a contradiction. On the one hand, the government seems unable to quell the unrest, and on the other, the opposition still cannot topple the regime without foreign assistance. Although a U.S. State Department official recently described al Assad as a “dead man walking,” walking might be the operative word there.
“The final outcome will depend on military dissidence inside the armed forces. If that widens the regime will be facing a real threat. The international community, including Turkey, the West and some Arab regimes such as Qatar, will back the Syrian military dissidents. But another issue is the composition of the Syrian opposition. As in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia the Muslim Brotherhood is also preparing to take over. The West and the international community must be aware of that challenge. They need to focus their support to secular and moderate elements in that opposition,” Phares advises.
Though not necessarily of this nature, we have become accustomed to unrest in the Middle East. Couple that with instability in Europe and that makes what experts dub “a systemic crisis in the global system” all the more realistic.
Phares argues that we are only in the beginning stages of this so called Spring. Because secular Democrats are outnumbered and not as empowered as other groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood, they will have to ‘rise again’ in pursuit of true democracy.
It is almost certain that the region, or even specific countries in the region, will not immediately adopt democracy and democratic ideals. Radical forces will have a strong hand in the decision making process and oil will once again be used as a weapon stronger than any ammunition. And whenever there is oil, there is foreign influence.
“As Europe is struggling economically and the US is trying to stabilize its economy, the current developments in the region won't stabilize the world economy, leaving an impact on global economic powers such as Russia, China, and India as well.”
Dr. Phares is strong in his belief that we haven’t seen anything yet.
“The Revolution is still coming.”
